最近，我又開始重新思考買房子的事情。我對房子的基本態度仍然和兩年前差不多沒什麼變化，也就是說我對於擁有所謂「自己的一個家」這件事本身並不是很有興趣，也沒有什麼想望，買房子對我來說，完全只是整體財務規畫投資的一個選項。因為外部條件似乎開始有點轉變，所以對於所有投資，包括買房子，就需要重新分析。就讓我寫寫文章、理理心情、上網無病呻吟一下好了。
兩年前，我對買房子這件事有寫下了所謂三不政策：在"沒有拿到綠卡"、"沒有存到 20% 的 downpay" 、"沒有確定一定會留在美國"之前不打算買房子。那我先來檢討一下這三不政策。
這兩年來，綠卡這件事一波三折，氣得我整個人都綠了（中略抱怨兩千字），不過目前看起來，似乎已經到了最後的關卡，整個申請已經等於是在 auto-pilot 的狀態。我知道以我龜毛的個性，就算現在開始看房子，也不太可能在綠卡出現之前就做出決定。所以這個檢查，算是安全通過了。
存到 20% 的 down pay 這件事，過去三年在我全力虐待自己的努力之下，似乎也算是有點著落。當然以我綿薄之力，是不可能買得起太好的區域、也不可能買得起太好的房子，不過買個不上不下的，至少自己看了不搖頭的地方，我想應該可以有一些選擇的能力。第二個檢查，也算是通過了。
至於第三點，也是最困難的一點 "沒有確定一定會留在美國"。關於這件事，我只能說，世事無絕對，這幾年來看了許多，有些朋友是因為家庭因素回台灣；有些朋友是因為工作不順回台灣；也有一切都很好，但是為了自己想要的人生道路，毅然決然回台灣。也有人感嘆當年為什麼沒有回台灣。也有人從台灣申請到美國的工作，轉跑道來美國工作。人生可能的道路有這麼多，就像是在抽一疊無底的機會命運牌，誰知道將來會發生什麼事？
在為這種事情苦惱的時候，我常常會回想自己無憂無慮的小時候，才知道自己曾經是多幸福的小孩。父母長輩總是能把家裡打理地很安全，生活上的外部條件，似乎像是刻在石頭裡一樣確定，我從來也不用擔心什麼，只要好好的長大就好了。等到長大了，才知道生活上那些我以為很確定的東西，根本就是比流沙還不安穩，像煙那樣虛無，我很努力伸手去抓，卻沒有一件能好好抓在手心裡。為人父母的，想盡辦法把這些不確定感隔離在小孩的世界之外，讓大人的煩惱歸大人，小孩只需要擔心一個相對確定的小世界裡，很多根本就是 very scaled down 的煩惱，是多了不起的事…
說來說去，我的結論是 "確定一定會留在美國" 本身就是一個無法確定的事。在我沒有非回台灣不可的理由，也沒有非留在美國不可的理由的情形下，比較無痛的生活軌跡，是繼續在美國工作。當然，這些外部條件隨時有可能會有無法預期的轉變。既然無法預期，那想破了頭也無法把這部分算清楚，看來只有暫時忽略這個條件。
既然我認為買房子完全是財務的決定，那思考就非得也經過財務面的分析。我大約一年多前搬到現在的住所，和一個朋友租用他的房子裡的一個房間，目的是減少房子的開支，加速存 down pay 的速度。幾個月前我做了一個試算表，計算的結果是，如果我能維持目前的房租，然後把錢做妥善投資，那買房子「非常難」變成一個財務上有利的選擇。如果我繼續住在人家家裡的小房間（只要房租不要不合理地暴漲），繼續把省下的錢去投資，那就算不買房（包含所有買房的稅務好處和房屋增值），我的資產累積應該還是比去買房子快。而且快得多。
剛好今年，我有好多住在灣區的大學同學都買了房子，這個試算表也在大家的 house warming party 上，變成一個討論的話題。其中不乏有同學很直接的指出，你現在一個人可以住在人家家裡，等你成家了怎麼辦？總不能一輩子不成家吧？
那關於成家這件事，說真的，我實在是看不到什麼未來 :-P 最近剛好在手機上裝了一個新的 APP 叫 douban.fm，簡單地介紹就是中文版的 pandora box，可以連上網亂數播（中文）歌。某天聽到了孫燕姿多年前的舊歌「遇見」，那個歌詞「我遇見誰會有怎樣的對白，我等的人他在多遠的未來」真是是讓我聽到流下淚來…超棒的一首，把感情裡的不確定和期待感寫得很貼切的歌…既然我不知道我等的人在多遠的未來，那為了這件事來計畫買房子，是不是更遙遠，更不切實際呢？
話題又扯遠了，回到買房子。以歷史的宏觀角度來看，似乎目前的房價在相對低點（和三四年前比，跌了非常多，但無法確定未來會不會再跌），而房貸利率則是在歷史低點，從擁有房子的花費來說，在歷史上找不到比現在更有利的買點。而且，房價可以無底下跌，跌到和一團水泥跟木頭一樣的價錢（理論上，當然現實上不太可能），但房貸利率不會無底下跌（跌到零就是絕對下限了），如果從這個角度來看，簡單的結論就是，如果能夠的話，此時不買，更等何時。唯一的風險是房價繼續下跌，但若是 mortgage 的 monthly payment 夠低，低到和租類似條件的房子差不了太多的價錢的話，雖然房價是 under water 的，但和付房租給別人相比，我至少是付房租給自己。從這個觀點來看，似乎我的確應該買房子？
這許許多多的觀點交錯在一起，實在是讓人很難決定。從兩個月前開始，我就自己找週末時間，四處亂逛 open house，本來是想說先理清如果我要買房子，該在哪個區域買的問題。結果，非常巧合的，我兩年前合作的 agent 媽媽，竟然像會讀心術一般，在我去逛 open house 那個週末過後的一兩天，就發了一個 email 給我，問我最近有沒有打算要重新開始買房子的過程。本來我還在猶豫，到底要再跟她合作，還是要另找新的 agent，不過既然人家都讀心成功了（當然，純屬巧合），而且之前合作也很愉快，我就決定要跟她重啟搜尋房子的偉大(?)旅程。
所以…我現在又開始看房子了。可以預期的是，接下來到年底，我應該會為這件事忙碌不少吧？希望這次真的是萬事具備，只欠東風…誰知道合意的房子會在什麼時候出現呢？
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Sunday, October 09, 2011
2010 Alaska cruise - Skagway part1 - Klondike Gold Rush History
停靠完 Juneau 之後，晚上我們的遊輪繼續開航北行，前往這次航程中最後一個停靠城市，也是我在這趟行程中最期待的 Skagway。之所以期待來這個城市，是因為它比前兩個停船的 Ketchikan 和 Juneau，多了一分傳奇故事的色彩。
After a stop at Juneau, our cruise ship headed further north in the evening, heading to our last port of call during the itinerary, Skagway. This is the port I looked forward to visiting the most, since it bares a legendary tale, and is by far more appealing to me than the other two ports, Ketchikan and Juneau.
【Arriving at Skagway by dawn, the small village lays asleep underneath the mountains.】
【Welcome to Skagway - The cliff next to the port is decorated with the logos of each ship visited in the past.】
【The wall recorded so many that came before us.】
十九世紀末，有一段歷時兩三年，非常瘋狂的 Klondike gold rush，成千上萬的人，為了拼一場致富的可能性，千里迢迢地從美國各地奔向加拿大的 Yukon，而其中一條路線，就是從海路來到 Skagway，翻過山，前往 Yukon。這些人通常是從西雅圖整裝出發，因此在西雅圖的 downtown，也有一個 Klondike gold rush 的小展覽館，我先前去西雅圖玩的時候，已經看過了這些展覽，因此對這個故事的後半段，非常好奇。現在，我終於有機會親身來到 Skagway，得以親眼看到當年歷史的發生地了。
At about the end of 19th century, there was this short, but very crazy event known as the Klondike gold rush in history. It lasted for just a few years, but tens of thousands of people left their homes behind, and spent all they had to come all the way from all over the places in US to Yukon (in Canada) for a very slim chance to become filthy rich. One of the popular routes chosen by the prospectors is to sail to Skagway, climb over the mountains, and travel across the icy fields to reach Yukon. Most of these prospectors sailed from Seattle, and thus there is a small museum for the Klondike gold rush in downtown Seattle. During my trip to Seattle in 2009, I visited this museum and saw how the stories of prospectors started, and became very curious about how their stories ended in the north country. And now here I am, at the town Skagway, the happening place of the Klondike gold rush, seeing where the history was made with my own eyes.
在二十一世紀的現代，Skagway 只是個人口不滿千人的小村莊；但在一百多年前，Klondike gold rush 正熱的時候，它可是被淘金客認定是通往富貴之路的大門。然而，富貴險中求，這句話用在當年淘金客的身上實在是再恰當不過。在古早時代，交通不便，加上阿拉斯加嚴寒的冬季，使得淘金客的生活面臨極為嚴峻，以現代的角度來看根本就是不可思議的挑戰。我認為，當年的淘金客，不只是有無比的勇氣，更是在正常生活已經走到了絕路的情形下，才會來到這裡。在當時，所有生活必須的補給品，都要由人或馬背著，帶進 Yukon 地方；加拿大邊境警察的要求是每個人要帶足六個月使用的補給品。當然，這麼多物資，是不可能一趟帶完的，所以所有淘金客，都得在蓋滿冰雪的山坡上不停地來回攀爬，直到六個月的物資都被搬到山上，才能進入加拿大。更難以置信的是，這麼艱鉅聽起來簡直像是極限運動的行程，挑戰的人竟然多到把整條 trail 給排滿了人！Klondike gold rush 的一張經典歷史照片，就是一座大雪山的雪坡上，從山頂到山腳，一個接一個地，站滿了勇往直前的淘金客，多到如果有人離開隊伍休息，那可要在雪坡上等上好幾分鐘，才能找到空隙重新加入隊伍。除了一夕致富的可能性讓人瘋狂之外，我實在是想不到更好的方法來形容這件事了。
At the present day, the town of Skgway is just a small village with population less than 1,000. Flip the calendar back for 100 years, at the heist of Klondike gold rush, Skagway was once considered the gateway towards the land of promise and prosperity, and prospectors flocked into the town by thousands. There is a saying that one seeks great return must bear great risk, and I cannot think of a more suitable application of this line than to the prospectors back then. At the time, means of traffic were primitive, and the bitter cold northern country provided the greatest challenge for the prospectors. From today's view, they were facing something almost impossible, and I think it took not only courage, but desperation towards life otherwise, to pull them over to this place. At the time, to even started the trip to Yukon, each prospector had to carry all supplies with him or on horse back and climb snowy mountains with thousands feet of elevation gain. The requirement by Canadian border patrol was that one has to carry six month of basic supply to cross the border. Therefore, the prospectors had to make multiple trips up and down the snowy slope, just to gather six months worth of supplies to show the border patrol, before he could even start the hundreds of miles journey into Yukon. For something this difficult and almost sounds like extreme sports, it is really surprising to see what happened then in historic photos - One after another, the prospectors lined up to climb the snowy hill, and the flow of people formed a continuous line from the very top of mountain to the bottom. If one stepped away from the line, he had to wait for minutes before there was an empty spot to join again. This was purely craziness. The hope of becoming rich had made so many people flock in with blind courage.
【Skagway, around 1900】
【Skagway, now 2010】
【One historic photo of Klondike gold rush. The black line ascending towards the top of mountain is not a road or a chain. It is a line formed by endless prospectors climbing the snowy hill. They had to make multiple trips to gather six months of supplies before even entering Canada.】
如今 Skagway 早已人去樓空的街道上，淘金熱的瘋狂早已隨風雪而逝，只剩下幾棟當年興建的主要建築，見證歷史的痕跡。除了每年夏天幾個月，每天隨遊輪造訪的成千觀光客之外，Skagway 基本上就是一個偏遠寧靜的小村莊，只有村裡的 Klondike gold rush museum，默默記念著這個村莊在歷史上曾經的地位。大部分的建築，都已經被改裝成販售各式記念品的店面，給人的感覺幾乎不像是一個村莊，而像是一個充滿了懷舊感的主題樂園。
Back to the present day, all is now quiet on the small streets of Skagway. The fever for gold has long come and gone, melted away like the snow does each summer. Only a handful of old buildings remain here as the witness of this once fanatic, unbelievable event. Other than welcoming the crowds visiting with cruise ships each day over the summer, Skagway is now basically a remote, quiet village. The Klondike gold rush museum in the first building on the main street remarks the "once upon a time in history" happened here. Most other buildings have been renovated into souvenir shops catering to tourists. This place almost does not feel like a real village, but a theme park about the Klondike gold rush.
【Skagway today - a small town frequently visited by huge cruise ships. The ships look like gigantic monsters looming over the small buildings in town.】
【All these people are tourists from cruise ships. Does this not look like a theme park for old time gold rush?】
【The most "stylish" old hotel in town.】
【The old houses are renovated into shops attracting tourists.】
Skagway 小鎮只有三條街，光是這樣，當然不足以讓我們消磨一天從早到晚的停船時間。當然，我早有準備，跟鎮上唯一一家的租車公司 Avis 定好了車，打算要沿著 Klondike Highway 一路開往加拿大 Yukon，參觀高緯度地區的山野景緻。
The town of Skagway includes only three streets. Obviously, this is not a place to spend a full day. I am well prepared for this situation and I have booked a rental car with the only Avis in town - we plan to drive along the Klondike highway all the way into Yukon in Canada, to take in the great view in of Canadian wilderness.
After a stop at Juneau, our cruise ship headed further north in the evening, heading to our last port of call during the itinerary, Skagway. This is the port I looked forward to visiting the most, since it bares a legendary tale, and is by far more appealing to me than the other two ports, Ketchikan and Juneau.
【Arriving at Skagway by dawn, the small village lays asleep underneath the mountains.】
【Welcome to Skagway - The cliff next to the port is decorated with the logos of each ship visited in the past.】
【The wall recorded so many that came before us.】At about the end of 19th century, there was this short, but very crazy event known as the Klondike gold rush in history. It lasted for just a few years, but tens of thousands of people left their homes behind, and spent all they had to come all the way from all over the places in US to Yukon (in Canada) for a very slim chance to become filthy rich. One of the popular routes chosen by the prospectors is to sail to Skagway, climb over the mountains, and travel across the icy fields to reach Yukon. Most of these prospectors sailed from Seattle, and thus there is a small museum for the Klondike gold rush in downtown Seattle. During my trip to Seattle in 2009, I visited this museum and saw how the stories of prospectors started, and became very curious about how their stories ended in the north country. And now here I am, at the town Skagway, the happening place of the Klondike gold rush, seeing where the history was made with my own eyes.
在二十一世紀的現代，Skagway 只是個人口不滿千人的小村莊；但在一百多年前，Klondike gold rush 正熱的時候，它可是被淘金客認定是通往富貴之路的大門。然而，富貴險中求，這句話用在當年淘金客的身上實在是再恰當不過。在古早時代，交通不便，加上阿拉斯加嚴寒的冬季，使得淘金客的生活面臨極為嚴峻，以現代的角度來看根本就是不可思議的挑戰。我認為，當年的淘金客，不只是有無比的勇氣，更是在正常生活已經走到了絕路的情形下，才會來到這裡。在當時，所有生活必須的補給品，都要由人或馬背著，帶進 Yukon 地方；加拿大邊境警察的要求是每個人要帶足六個月使用的補給品。當然，這麼多物資，是不可能一趟帶完的，所以所有淘金客，都得在蓋滿冰雪的山坡上不停地來回攀爬，直到六個月的物資都被搬到山上，才能進入加拿大。更難以置信的是，這麼艱鉅聽起來簡直像是極限運動的行程，挑戰的人竟然多到把整條 trail 給排滿了人！Klondike gold rush 的一張經典歷史照片，就是一座大雪山的雪坡上，從山頂到山腳，一個接一個地，站滿了勇往直前的淘金客，多到如果有人離開隊伍休息，那可要在雪坡上等上好幾分鐘，才能找到空隙重新加入隊伍。除了一夕致富的可能性讓人瘋狂之外，我實在是想不到更好的方法來形容這件事了。
At the present day, the town of Skgway is just a small village with population less than 1,000. Flip the calendar back for 100 years, at the heist of Klondike gold rush, Skagway was once considered the gateway towards the land of promise and prosperity, and prospectors flocked into the town by thousands. There is a saying that one seeks great return must bear great risk, and I cannot think of a more suitable application of this line than to the prospectors back then. At the time, means of traffic were primitive, and the bitter cold northern country provided the greatest challenge for the prospectors. From today's view, they were facing something almost impossible, and I think it took not only courage, but desperation towards life otherwise, to pull them over to this place. At the time, to even started the trip to Yukon, each prospector had to carry all supplies with him or on horse back and climb snowy mountains with thousands feet of elevation gain. The requirement by Canadian border patrol was that one has to carry six month of basic supply to cross the border. Therefore, the prospectors had to make multiple trips up and down the snowy slope, just to gather six months worth of supplies to show the border patrol, before he could even start the hundreds of miles journey into Yukon. For something this difficult and almost sounds like extreme sports, it is really surprising to see what happened then in historic photos - One after another, the prospectors lined up to climb the snowy hill, and the flow of people formed a continuous line from the very top of mountain to the bottom. If one stepped away from the line, he had to wait for minutes before there was an empty spot to join again. This was purely craziness. The hope of becoming rich had made so many people flock in with blind courage.
【Skagway, around 1900】
【Skagway, now 2010】
【One historic photo of Klondike gold rush. The black line ascending towards the top of mountain is not a road or a chain. It is a line formed by endless prospectors climbing the snowy hill. They had to make multiple trips to gather six months of supplies before even entering Canada.】Back to the present day, all is now quiet on the small streets of Skagway. The fever for gold has long come and gone, melted away like the snow does each summer. Only a handful of old buildings remain here as the witness of this once fanatic, unbelievable event. Other than welcoming the crowds visiting with cruise ships each day over the summer, Skagway is now basically a remote, quiet village. The Klondike gold rush museum in the first building on the main street remarks the "once upon a time in history" happened here. Most other buildings have been renovated into souvenir shops catering to tourists. This place almost does not feel like a real village, but a theme park about the Klondike gold rush.
【Skagway today - a small town frequently visited by huge cruise ships. The ships look like gigantic monsters looming over the small buildings in town.】
【All these people are tourists from cruise ships. Does this not look like a theme park for old time gold rush?】
【The most "stylish" old hotel in town.】
【The old houses are renovated into shops attracting tourists.】The town of Skagway includes only three streets. Obviously, this is not a place to spend a full day. I am well prepared for this situation and I have booked a rental car with the only Avis in town - we plan to drive along the Klondike highway all the way into Yukon in Canada, to take in the great view in of Canadian wilderness.
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